2009年美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲3

Laying the Foundation for Future Growth

为未来的发展奠定基础

As we address this immediate financial and economic crisis, it is important that we also lay the foundations for more balanced, sustained growth of the global economy once this recovery is firmly established.

在我们继续处理当前金融和经济危机的同时，我们还要在恢复一旦确定时，重视为未来全球经济的持续增长和更加均衡奠定基础。

A successful transition to a more balanced and stable global economy will require very substantial changes to economic policy and financial regulation around the world. But some of the most important of those changes will have to come in the United States and China. How successful we are in Washington and Beijing will be critically important to the economic fortunes of the rest of the world. The effectiveness of U.S. policies will depend in part on China's, and the effectiveness of yours on ours.

成功地过渡到一个更加平衡和稳定的全球经济，将需要对世界各地的经济政策和金融监管进行非常重大的变革。但是，这些变革中的一些最重要的部分将不得不在美国和中国进行。我们在华盛顿和北京的成功程度，将对世界其他地区的经济命运至关重要。美国政策的成效将部分取决于中国的，反之亦然。

Although the United States and China start from very different positions, many of our domestic challenges are similar. In the United States, we are working to reform our health care system, to improve the quality of education, to rebuild our infrastructure, and to improve energy efficiency. These reforms are essential to boosting the productive capacity of our economy. These challenges are at the center of your reform priorities, too.

虽然美国和中国从不同的位置开始，我们的许多国内改革的挑战是相似的。我们正在努力改革我们的卫生保健系统，提高教育质量，重建我们的基础设施，并提高能源效率。我们认为这些改革对提高我们经济的生产能力是必不可少的。这些挑战也是你们改革的重中之重。

We are both working to reform our financial systems. In the United States, our challenge is to create a more stable and more resilient financial system, with stronger protections for consumer and investors. As we work to strengthen and redesign regulation to achieve these objectives, our challenge is to preserve the core strengths of our financial system, which are its exceptional capacity to adapt and innovate and to channel capital for investment in new technologies and innovative companies. You have the benefit of being able to learn from our shortcomings, which have proved so damaging in the present crisis, as well as from our strengths.

我们双方都在对我们的金融体系进行改革。在美国，我们的挑战是创建一个更稳定、更具弹性的金融系统，为消费者和投资者提供更强有力的保护。当我们努力加强和重新设计规范以实现这些目标时，我们面临的挑战是维护我们金融体系的核心优势，也就是在适应、创新以及使资本流向新技术和创新公司方面的特殊能力。你们可以从学习我们的被当前的危机证明具有如此破坏性的缺陷和我们的优势中获益。

Our common challenge is to recognize that a more balanced and sustainable global recovery will require changes in the composition of growth in our two economies. Because of this, our policies have to be directed at very different outcomes.

我们共同的挑战是要认识到一个更加均衡的、可持续的全球复苏将要求我们两个经济体经济增长构成的变化。因此，我们的政策必须针对非常不同的结果。

In the United States, saving rates will have to increase, and the purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past.

在美国，储蓄率将不得不上升，同时美国消费者的购买不可能再像过去那样作为增长的主要动力。

In China, as your leadership has recognized, growth that is sustainable growth will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export intensive driven growth, to growth led by consumption. Strengthening domestic demand will also strengthen China's ability to weather fluctuations in global supply and demand.

在中国，正如你们的领导已经意识到的，可持续的增长将要求一个非常重大的从外部需求到国内需求、从投资和出口密集型增长到消费导向型增长的转变。

If we are successful on these respective paths, public and private saving in the United States will increase as recovery strengthens, and as this happens, our current account deficit will come down. And in China, domestic demand will rise at a faster rate than overall GDP, led by a gradual shift to higher rates of consumption.

如果我们在各自的路径上成功，随着复苏增强，美国的公共和私人储蓄将上升，并且随之，我们的经常账户赤字将减少。在中国，由于消费比例的逐步转高，中国的国内需求将以快于整体GDP的速度增长。

Globally, recovery will have come more from a shift by high saving economies to stronger domestic demand and less from the American consumer.

在全球，复苏将更多依靠高储蓄经济体转向更强的国内需求，而更少依靠美国消费者。

The policy framework for a successful transition to this outcome is starting to take shape.

为顺利过渡到这一结果的政策框架已经开始形成。

In the United States, we are putting in place the foundations for restoring fiscal sustainability.

在美国，我们正在建设恢复财政可持续性的基础。

The President in his initial budget to Congress made it clear that, as soon as recovery is firmly established, we are going to have to bring our fiscal deficit down to a level that is sustainable over the medium term. This will mean bringing the imbalance between our fiscal resources and expenditures down to the point - roughly three percent of GDP -- where the overall level of public debt to GDP is definitively on a downward path. The temporary investments and tax incentives we put in place in the Recovery Act to strengthen private demand will have to expire, discretionary spending will have to fall back to a more modest level relative to GDP, and we will have to be very disciplined in limiting future commitments through the reintroduction of budget disciplines, such as pay-as-you go rules.

总统在给国会的初步预算中明确，一旦复苏牢固确立，我们将必须削减财政赤字到一个中期可持续的水平。这意味着将我们的财政资源与支出之间的不平衡减少到这样一点 ---大约GDP的百分之三 --- 使公共债务占GDP的整体水平处于明确的下降路径。我们的复兴法案中提到的用以增强私人需求的暂时投资和税收优惠政策将到期，自由决定的支出将不得不回落到一个相对GDP更加适度的水平，并且我们将不得不非常有纪律的通过恢复预算纪律，例如现收现付制度，来限制未来的承诺。

The President also looks forward to working with Congress to further reduce our long-run fiscal deficit.

总统还期待与国会共同努力以进一步减少我们长期的财政赤字。

And, critical to our long-term fiscal health, we have to put in place comprehensive health care reform that will bring down the growth in health care costs, costs that are the principal driver of our long run fiscal deficit.

同时，作为我们长期财政健康的关键，我们必须进行全面的卫生保健改革，以降低卫生保健成本的增长，这些成本是我们长期财政赤字的主要动力。

The President has also proposed steps to encourage private saving, including through automatic enrollment in retirement savings accounts.

总统还建议了鼓励私人储蓄的步骤，包括通过自动注册退休储蓄账户。

Alongside these fiscal actions, we have designed our policies to address the financial crisis to carefully minimize risk to the taxpayer and to allow for an orderly exit or unwinding as soon as conditions permit. Across the various financial facilities put in place by the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the FDIC, we have been careful to set the economic terms at a level so that demand for these facilities will fade as conditions normalize and risk premia recede. Banks have a strong incentive to replace public capital with private capital as soon as conditions permit.

除了这些财政行动，我们设计我们的政策以解决金融危机，从而谨慎的最小化纳税人的风险，并且一旦条件许可就允许有序的退出或解除。在所有财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司设立的各种金融机构中，我们一直在谨慎地确定经济条款水平，以便当条件正常化、风险溢价消退时对这些机构的需求将会淡出。一旦条件允许，银行有强烈的动机用私人资本替换公共资本。

Let me be clear - the United States is committed to a strong and stable international financial system. The Obama Administration fully recognizes that the United States has a special responsibility to play in this regard, and we fully appreciate that exercising this special responsibility begins at home. As we recover from this unprecedented crisis, we will cut our fiscal deficit, we will eliminate the extraordinary governmental support that we have put in place to overcome the crisis, we will continue to preserve the openness of our economy, and we will resolutely maintain the policy framework necessary for durable and lasting sustained non-inflationary growth.

In China, the challenge is fundamentally different, and at least as complex.

在中国，挑战有根本的不同，但至少一样复杂。

Critical to the success of your efforts to shift future growth to domestic demand are measures to raise household incomes and to reduce the need that households feel to save large amounts for precautionary reasons or to pay for major expenditures like education. This involves strengthening the social safety net with health care reform and more complete public retirement systems, enacting financial reforms to help expand access to credit for households, and providing products that allow households to insure against risk. These efforts can be funded through the increased collection of dividends from state-owned enterprises.

成功实现转向国内需求推动未来增长的关键是增加居民收入和减少因为防御原因和用于例如教育的主要支出等使居民觉得需要大量储蓄的需求。这包括增强社会保障体系包括卫生保健改革和更完善的公共退休系统，实施金融改革以帮助扩大居民的信用获得并提供产品帮助居民防范风险。

The structure of the Chinese economy will shift as domestic demand grows in importance, with a larger service sector, more emphasis on light industry, and less emphasis on heavy, capital intensive export and import-competing industries. The resulting growth will generate greater employment, and be less energy-intensive than the current structure of Chinese industry. Allowing the market, interest rates, and other prices to function to encourage the shift in production will be particularly important.

当国内需求的重要性增加的时候，中国经济的结构将转变，更大的服务业，更强调轻工业，并减少强调重工业、资本密集出口和进口竞争产业。由此带来的增长将产生更多的就业，和较目前中国经济结构更少的能源密集。允许市场、利率和其他价格发挥作用以鼓励生产的转变是至关重要的。

An important part of this strategy is the government's commitment to continue progress toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help reinforce the shift in the composition of growth, encourage resource shifts to support domestic demand, and provide greater ability for monetary policy to achieve sustained growth with low inflation in the future.

这一策略的一个重要部分是政府承诺将继续向更灵活的汇率政策推进。更大的汇率灵活性将帮助加强增长构成的转变，鼓励资源向支持国内需求转移，并提供货币政策更大的能力，以实现将来的持续增长和低通货膨胀率。