2015年在职GCT备考：英语阅读素材(1)

Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will launch another round of bond buying this week are fueling speculation that China also may ease policy soon to shore up its cooling economy.

　　But analysts say investors who bet on quick action from the People's Bank of China could be disappointed, with only an outside chance that it would follow the Fed's lead with more monetary easing of its own any time soon.

　　The best markets could hope for would be a further cut in banks' reserve requirement (RRR), but the odds against such an imminent move or even an outright interest rate cut are high as a recent flare-up in property and consumer inflation overshadows the urgency of policy easing.

　　Moreover, unlike the 2008/09 global crisis, China's labor market is still holding up well in part due to wrenching economic and demographic shifts.

　　Markets simply may have underestimated Beijing's tolerance of lower economic growth this year, as long as the slowdown is not too abrupt and does not spark social unrest ahead of a once-in-a-generation leadership change expected next month.

　　The Chinese economy will slow further in the third quarter but regain some momentum late in the year as the impact of earlier policy easing fully kicks in, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists released on Wednesday.

　　中文翻译：

　　市场预计美国联邦储备委员会(FED,美联储)本周将推出新一轮的购债计划.这令外界揣测中国或亦将很快放松政策来支撑其不断放缓的经济.

　　但分析师称,认为中国人民银行将很快行动的投资者可能要失望了,中国只有极小的可能性会追随美联储很快推出自身的宽松措施.

　　市场能够期待出现的结果也就是进一步下调存款准备金率(RRR),但立即采取该行动或者甚至直接下调利率的可能性很低,因近期房地产市场和通胀回升盖过放宽政策的紧迫性.

　　此外,与2008/09年的全球性危机不同,中国的就业市场仍保持平稳,这部分是由於经济和人口结构的改变.

　　市场可能是低估了中国政府今年对经济成长放慢的容忍度.只要经济放缓不是过於剧烈,而且不会在18大会议之前引发社会动荡,中国政府可以容忍.

　　据周三发布的最新路透调查显示,中国经济成长在第三季度将进一步放慢,但随着稍早宽松政策的效果开始完全显现,经济会在年底重获部分动能.

　　不过,即使第四季经济活动温和反弹,全年经济增速仍会跌落至8%以下,可能创下1999年来最低增速.